It’s been a sizzling spring for the American labor market, and whereas the summer time forecast is milder, it’s not clear when the cool-down will start.

The final three months have seen an upswing in job creation, bending what had been a bumpy however particular downtrend for the reason that post-pandemic resurgence. Within the April report from the Labor Division, coming Friday morning, economists anticipate to see an extra 240,000 jobs, which might be barely lower than the first-quarter common however greater than the tempo over the second half of final yr.

Does that imply the labor market is taking off once more with out ever having touched down? Analysts doubt it — partly as a result of the (literal) climate could have added some (figurative) warmth, permitting sectors like building and retail so as to add extra jobs than they in any other case may need.

“I really feel like a damaged report, as a result of economists are at all times blaming climate results this time of yr, however it actually was a report heat winter,” stated Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist for Capital Economics.

Enterprise surveys, like these carried out by the Institute for Provide Administration and Nationwide Federation of Unbiased Enterprise, have mirrored plans to rent fewer folks over the approaching months. Different indicators of demand for labor, similar to job openings, have receded considerably. Staff are quitting their jobs at even decrease charges than they have been in 2019.

On the similar time, layoffs have drifted alongside at a low degree, and wage development has remained sturdy. Within the newest indication that staff are nonetheless getting raises, the Employment Price Index — which measures different employer-provided advantages in addition to pay — rose quicker than anticipated within the first quarter.

A attainable purpose: As a substitute of permitting their staff to leap for the subsequent alternative, employers are making it price their whereas to stay round.

“If that’s the case, you would possibly provide a little bit extra compensation, a little bit extra on the retirement aspect,” stated Belinda Román, an affiliate professor of economics at St. Mary’s College in San Antonio. “You don’t have that price of onboarding and beginning over once more in case you can maintain on to them.”